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Is there a pessimistic bias in individual beliefs ? Evidence from survey data

Napp, Clotilde; Jouini, Elyès; Ben Mansour, Selima (2006), Is there a pessimistic bias in individual beliefs ? Evidence from survey data, European Financial Management Symposium, 2006-04, Durham, Royaume-Uni

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Type
Communication / Conférence
Date
2006
Conference title
European Financial Management Symposium
Conference date
2006-04
Conference city
Durham
Conference country
Royaume-Uni
Pages
32
Metadata
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Author(s)
Napp, Clotilde cc
Jouini, Elyès
Ben Mansour, Selima
Abstract (EN)
The aim of this paper is to determine whether individuals exhibit a behavioral bias towards pessimism in their beliefs, in a lottery or more generally in an investment opportunities framework. For this purpose, we design a field survey on a sample of 1,540 individuals aiming at deriving a measure of pessimism from answers to hypothetical scenarios. In the context of our experiment, we observe that individuals are on average pessimistic. We analyze how pessimism is distributed among individuals, in particular in link with gender, age and income. We also analyze how our notion of pessimism is related to more general notions of pessimism already introduced in psychology. We finally estimate the possible impact of this pessimistic bias on the financial markets equilibrium risk premium.
Subjects / Keywords
pessimism; lottery; judged probability
JEL
D53 - Financial Markets
D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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