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Fiscal Sustainability in the Presence of Systemic Banks: the Case of EU countries

Roussellet, Guillaume; Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès (2014), Fiscal Sustainability in the Presence of Systemic Banks: the Case of EU countries, International Tax and Public Finance, 21, 3, p. 436-467. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10797-013-9273-0

Type
Article accepté pour publication ou publié
External document link
http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00755705
Date
2014
Journal name
International Tax and Public Finance
Volume
21
Number
3
Publisher
Springer
Pages
436-467
Publication identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10797-013-9273-0
Metadata
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Author(s)
Roussellet, Guillaume
Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès
Abstract (EN)
We provide a first attempt to include off-balance sheet, implicit insurance to SIFIs into a consistent assessment of fiscal sustainability, for 27 countries of the European Union. We first calculate tax gaps à la Blanchard (1990) and Blanchard et al. (1990). We then introduce two alternative measures of implicit off-balance sheet liabilities related to the risk of a systemic bank crisis. The first one relies on microeconomic data at the bank level. The second one is based on econometric estimations of the probability and the cost of a systemic banking crisis. The former approach provides an upper evaluation of the fiscal cost of systemic banking crises, whereas the latter one provides a lower one. Hence we believe that the combined use of these two methodologies helps to gauge the range of fiscal risk.
Subjects / Keywords
off-balance sheet liabilities; systemic banking risk; tax gap; fiscal sustainability

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