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The "Second Dividend" and the Demographic Structure

Gonand, Frédéric; Jouvet, Pierre-André (2015), The "Second Dividend" and the Demographic Structure, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 72, p. 71–97. 10.1016/j.jeem.2015.04.007

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14-04-Cahier-R-2014-05-Gonand-and-Jouvet.pdf (1.226Mb)
Type
Article accepté pour publication ou publié
Date
2015
Journal name
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
Volume
72
Publisher
Academic Press
Pages
71–97
Publication identifier
10.1016/j.jeem.2015.04.007
Metadata
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Author(s)
Gonand, Frédéric

Jouvet, Pierre-André
EconomiX
Abstract (EN)
The demographic structure of a country influences economic activity. The “second dividend” modifies growth. Accordingly, in general equilibrium, the second dividend and the demographic structure are interrelated. This paper aims at assessing empirically the “second dividend” in a dynamic, empirical and intertemporal setting that allows for measuring its impact on growth, its intergenerational redistributive effects, and its interaction with the demographic structure. The paper uses a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, an energy module and a public finance module that distinguishes between non-ageing-related public spending and a pension regime. Policy scenarios compare the consequences of different scenarios of recycling a carbon tax through lower proportional income taxes rather than higher public lump-sum expenditures. They are computed for two countries with different demographics (France and Germany). Results suggest that the magnitude of the “second dividend” is significantly related with the demographic structure. The more concentrated the demographic structure on cohorts with higher income and saving rate, the stronger the effect on capital supply of the second dividend. The second dividend weighs on the welfare of relatively aged working cohorts. It fosters the wellbeing of young working cohorts and of future generations. The more concentrated the demographic structure on aged working cohorts, the higher the intergenerational redistributive effects of the second dividend.
Subjects / Keywords
Energy transition; Intergenerational redistribution; Overlapping generations; Double dividend; General equilibrium
JEL
D58 - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
E62 - Fiscal Policy
L70 - General
Q28 - Government Policy
Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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