A recursive point process model for infectious diseases
Schoenberg, Frederic; Hoffman, Marc; Harrigan, Ryan (2019), A recursive point process model for infectious diseases, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, p. 31. 10.1007/s10463-018-0690-9
TypeArticle accepté pour publication ou publié
External document linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01966329
Journal nameAnnals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics
MetadataShow full item record
Department of Statistics, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision [CEREMADE]
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology [DEEB]
Abstract (EN)We introduce a new type of point process model to describe the incidence of contagious diseases. The model incorporates the premise that when a disease occurs at low frequency in the population, such as in the primary stages of an outbreak, then anyone with the disease is likely to have a high rate of transmission to others, whereas when the disease is prevalent, the transmission rate is lower due to prevention measures and a relatively high percentage of previous exposure in the population. The model is said to be recursive, in the sense that the conditional intensity at any time depends on the productivity associated with previous points, and this productivity in turn depends on the conditional intensity at those points. Basic properties of the model are derived, estimation and simulation are discussed, and the recursive model is shown to fit well to California Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever data.
Subjects / KeywordsConditional intensity; Contagious diseases; Hawkes process; Productivity
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