• xmlui.mirage2.page-structure.header.title
    • français
    • English
  • Help
  • Login
  • Language 
    • Français
    • English
View Item 
  •   BIRD Home
  • LEDa (UMR CNRS 8007, UMR IRD 260)
  • LEDa : Publications
  • View Item
  •   BIRD Home
  • LEDa (UMR CNRS 8007, UMR IRD 260)
  • LEDa : Publications
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Browse

BIRDResearch centres & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesTypeThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesType

My Account

LoginRegister

Statistics

Most Popular ItemsStatistics by CountryMost Popular Authors
Thumbnail - Request a copy

Identifying the main uncertainty drivers of energy security in a low-carbon world: The case of Europe

Monjon, Stéphanie; Guivarch, Céline (2017), Identifying the main uncertainty drivers of energy security in a low-carbon world: The case of Europe, Resource and Energy Economics, 64, p. 530-541. 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.04.007

Type
Article accepté pour publication ou publié
Date
2017
Journal name
Resource and Energy Economics
Volume
64
Publisher
Elsevier
Pages
530-541
Publication identifier
10.1016/j.eneco.2016.04.007
Metadata
Show full item record
Author(s)
Monjon, Stéphanie
Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine [LEDa]
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales [CEPII]
centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement [CIRED]
Guivarch, Céline cc
Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement [CIRED]
centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement [CIRED]
Abstract (EN)
This analysis contributes to recent efforts to better understand the evolution of energy security in a low-carbon world. Our objective was to assess how energy security may change over the course of the century, and to what extent these changes depend on the uncertainty of the factors that drive the evolution of energy systems, including future technologies, improved energy efficiency, fossil fuel resources and markets, and economic growth. To this end, we focused on Europe and on a set of energy security indicators based on three perspectives: sovereignty, robustness and resilience. A database of scenarios allowed us to account for the large uncertainties surrounding the determinants of future energy systems. We then analyzed the way energy security indicators evolve over time, and how their trajectories vary across scenarios. We identified the indicators that vary the most between scenarios, i.e., the indicators whose future evolution is the most uncertain. For these indicators, we performed an analysis of variance to estimate the contribution of each driver to the uncertainty of the indicators. The paper shows that the European double target of significantly decreasing CO2 emissions and increasing the security of the supply of energy may be difficult to reach. Nevertheless, some levers could facilitate the transition to a low-carbon society while improving energy security, or by limiting its degradation. The results emphasize not only the importance of policies in favor of low or zero carbon technologies in power generation but also the differences in their contributions to the complete uncertainty of the indicators. Policies promoting energy efficiency also play a role but only in the resilience of TPES. These policies are thus important levers for mitigating the negative impacts of climate policies on energy security.
Subjects / Keywords
Climate policy; Energy security; Europe; Scenarios database; Sovereignty; Robustness; Resilience
JEL
Q54 - Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
Q47 - Energy Forecasting
Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy

Related items

Showing items related by title and author.

  • Thumbnail
    Would climate policy improve the European energy security? 
    Guivarch, Céline; Monjon, Stéphanie; Rozenberg, Julie; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien (2014) Communication / Conférence
  • Thumbnail
    Would climate policy improve European energy security? 
    Guivarch, Céline; Monjon, Stéphanie; Rozenberg, Julie; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien (2015) Article accepté pour publication ou publié
  • Thumbnail
    Greenhouse gas intensity of three main crops and implications for low-carbon agriculture in China 
    Wang, Wen; Guo, Liping; Li, Yingchun; Su, Man; Lin, Yuebin; De Perthuis, Christian; Ju, Xiaotang; Lin, Erda; Moran, Dominic (2015) Article accepté pour publication ou publié
  • Thumbnail
    2018 : ‘Year zero’ of the ‘low-carbon’ energy transition ? 
    Geoffron, Patrice (2019) Chapitre d'ouvrage
  • Thumbnail
    Evaluer les interactions entre politique climatique et sécurité énergétique en Europe (ELIPSE) 
    Guivarch, Céline; Monjon, Stéphanie; Rozenberg, Julie; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien (2012) Rapport
Dauphine PSL Bibliothèque logo
Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny 75775 Paris Cedex 16
Phone: 01 44 05 40 94
Contact
Dauphine PSL logoEQUIS logoCreative Commons logo