Immunity after COVID-19: protection or sensitization ?
Danchin, Antoine; Turinici, Gabriel (2020), Immunity after COVID-19: protection or sensitization ?. https://basepub.dauphine.fr/handle/123456789/21080
TypeDocument de travail / Working paper
External document linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02872798
Series titleCahier de recherche CEREMADE
MetadataShow full item record
Institut Cochin [IC UM3 (UMR 8104 / U1016)]
CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision [CEREMADE]
Abstract (EN)Motivated by historical and present clinical observations, we discuss the possible unfavorable evolution of the immunity (similar to documented antibody-dependent enhancement scenarios) after a first infection with COVID-19. More precisely we ask the question of how the epidemic outcomes are affected if the initial infection does not provide immunity but rather sensitization to future challenges. We first provide background comparison with the 2003 SARS epidemic. Then we use a compartmental epidemic model structured by immunity level (taken here as age classes) that we fit on available data; this allows to derive quantitative insights into the future number of severe cases and deaths.
Subjects / KeywordsCOVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; antibody-dependent enhancement; SEIR model; vaccine; dengue fever; asymptomatic
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