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Demographics in MENA Countries: A Major Driver for Economic Growth

Forouheshfar, Yeganeh; El Mekkaoui-De Freitas, Najat; d’Albis, Hippolyte (2020), Demographics in MENA Countries: A Major Driver for Economic Growth, De Economist, 168, p. 183–213. 10.1007/s10645-020-09357-y

Type
Article accepté pour publication ou publié
Date
2020-01
Journal name
De Economist
Volume
168
Publisher
Springer
Pages
183–213
Publication identifier
10.1007/s10645-020-09357-y
Metadata
Show full item record
Author(s)
Forouheshfar, Yeganeh
Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme [DIAL]
Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine [LEDa]
El Mekkaoui-De Freitas, Najat
Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine [LEDa]
d’Albis, Hippolyte cc
Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques [PJSE]
Abstract (EN)
MENA region is undergoing rapid demographic transition, where 50% of the population is under the age 25 and high youth unemployment rates are argued to be one of the main sources of political instability. In this paper we evaluate the economic impact of the demographic transition for selected MENA countries, namely: Iran, Morocco and Egypt who experience different speeds of transition. We have developed a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with a cost of capital mobilisation as a proxy for financial markets’ efficiency and simulated the demographic trends in each country. We find that the demographic shift will be an important driver for growth in the upcoming decades. Furthermore, our results show that a more efficient financial sector leads to better economic performance. Specifically, youth are the primary beneficiaries: an increase in the financial sector efficiency can reduce up to 8 percentage points of the the unemployment rate for the youngest age group.
Subjects / Keywords
Iran; Morocco; Egypt; demographic transition; financial transition; development
JEL
O16 - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
O15 - Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
O55 - Africa

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