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Will Schumpeter catch COVID-19? Evidence from France

Cros, Mathieu; Epaulard, Anne; Martin, Philippe (2021), Will Schumpeter catch COVID-19? Evidence from France. https://basepub.dauphine.fr/handle/123456789/21663

Type
Document de travail / Working paper
External document link
https://cepr.org/content/covid-economics-vetted-and-real-time-papers-0#block-block-10
Date
2021
Publisher
Centre for Economic Policy Research
Series title
CEPR Discussion papers
Series number
DP15834
Published in
Washington, D.C
Pages
25
Metadata
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Author(s)
Cros, Mathieu
Bordeaux Imaging Center [BIC]
Epaulard, Anne
Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine [LEDa]
Martin, Philippe cc
Abstract (EN)
We estimate the factors predicting firm failures in the COVID crisisbased on French data in 2020. Although the number of firms filing forbankruptcy was much below its normal level (-36% compared to 2019)the same factors that predicted firm failures (primarily productivity anddebt) in 2019 are at work in a similar way as in 2020. Hence, the selectionprocess, although much reduced, has not been distorted in 2020. At thisstage, partial hibernation rather than zombification characterises theselection into firm survival or failure. We also find that the sectoralheterogeneity of the turnover COVID shock (proxied by the changein credit card transactions) has been largely (but not fully) absorbedby public policy support because it predicts little of the probability ofbankruptcy at the firm level. Finally, we sketch some potential scenariosfor 2021-2022 for different sectors based on our empirical estimates ofpredictors of firm failures.
Subjects / Keywords
Bankruptcy; Covid-19; Zombie Frims
JEL
G33 - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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