Immunity after COVID-19: protection or sensitization ?

Danchin, Antoine; Turinici, Gabriel

Danchin, Antoine; Turinici, Gabriel (2021), Immunity after COVID-19: protection or sensitization ?, Mathematical Biosciences, 331, p. 108499. 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108499

Type

Article accepté pour publication ou publié

External document link

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02872798

Date

2021

Journal name

Mathematical Biosciences

Volume

331

Publisher

Elsevier

Pages

108499

Institut Cochin [IC UM3 (UMR 8104 / U1016)]
Turinici, Gabriel

CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision [CEREMADE]

Abstract (EN)

Motivated by historical and present clinical observations, we discuss the possible unfavorable evolution of the immunity (similar to documented antibody-dependent enhancement scenarios) after a first infection with COVID-19. More precisely we ask the question of how the epidemic outcomes are affected if the initial infection does not provide immunity but rather sensitization to future challenges. We first provide background comparison with the 2003 SARS epidemic. Then we use a compartmental epidemic model structured by immunity level that we fit to available data; using several scenarios of the fragilization dynamics, we derive quantitative insights into the additional expected numbers of severe cases and deaths.

Subjects / Keywords

COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; immunity; Antibody-dependent enhancement; SEIR model; Vaccine; Dengue fever; Asymptomatic