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hal.structure.identifierInstitut Cochin [IC UM3 (UMR 8104 / U1016)]
dc.contributor.authorDanchin, Antoine
HAL ID: 21434
ORCID: 0000-0002-6350-5001
hal.structure.identifierInstitut Cochin [IC UM3 (UMR 8104 / U1016)]
dc.contributor.authorNg, Tuen Wai Patrick
hal.structure.identifierCEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision [CEREMADE]
dc.contributor.authorTurinici, Gabriel
HAL ID: 16
ORCID: 0000-0003-2713-006X
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-28T14:30:37Z
dc.date.available2021-10-28T14:30:37Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.issn2079-7737
dc.identifier.urihttps://basepub.dauphine.psl.eu/handle/123456789/22115
dc.language.isoenen
dc.subjectCOVID-19en
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2en
dc.subjectepidemic modelen
dc.subjectcontaminationen
dc.subjectSARSen
dc.subjectcoronavirusen
dc.subjectcoronavirus propagationen
dc.subject.ddc515en
dc.titleA new transmission route for the propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirusen
dc.typeArticle accepté pour publication ou publié
dc.description.abstractenackground: Starting late 2019, a novel coronavirus spread from the capital of the Hubei province in China to the rest of the country, then to most of the world. To anticipate future trends in the development of the pandemic, we explore here, based on public records of infected persons, how variation in the virus tropism could end up in different patterns, warranting a specific strategy to handle the epidemic. Methods: We use a compartmental model to describe the evolution of an individual through several possible states: susceptible, infected, alternative infection, detected, and removed. We fit the parameters of the model to the existing data, taking into account significant quarantine changes where necessary. Results: The model indicates that Wuhan quarantine measures were effective, but that alternative virus forms and a second propagation route are compatible with available data. For the Hong Kong, Singapore, and Shenzhen regions, the secondary route does not seem to be active. Conclusions: Hypotheses of an alternative infection tropism (the gut tropism) and a secondary propagation route are discussed using a model fitted by the available data. Corresponding prevention measures that take into account both routes should be implemented to the benefit of epidemic control.en
dc.relation.isversionofjnlnameBiology
dc.relation.isversionofjnlvol10en
dc.relation.isversionofjnlissue1en
dc.relation.isversionofjnldate2021
dc.relation.isversionofjnlpages10en
dc.relation.isversionofdoi10.1101/2020.02.14.20022939en
dc.identifier.urlsitehttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02872801en
dc.relation.isversionofjnlpublisherMDPIen
dc.subject.ddclabelAnalyseen
dc.relation.forthcomingnonen
dc.description.ssrncandidatenon
dc.description.halcandidatenonen
dc.description.readershiprechercheen
dc.description.audienceInternationalen
dc.relation.Isversionofjnlpeerreviewedouien
dc.date.updated2021-10-28T14:18:35Z
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