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Early Labor Market Prospects and Family Formation

Engdahl, Mattias; Godard, Mathilde; Skans, O. N. (2022), Early Labor Market Prospects and Family Formation, The Journal of Human Resources, 57, 3, p. 54. 10.3368/jhr.1220-11387R1

Type
Article accepté pour publication ou publié
Date
2022-04
Journal name
The Journal of Human Resources
Volume
57
Number
3
Publisher
University of Wisconsin Press
Pages
54
Publication identifier
10.3368/jhr.1220-11387R1
Metadata
Show full item record
Author(s)
Engdahl, Mattias
Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation (IFAU)
Godard, Mathilde
Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion des Organisations de Santé [Legos]
Skans, O. N.
Abstract (EN)
Using quasi-random variation in graduation years of Swedish vocational high-school females at the sudden onset of a deep national recession, we study how deteriorated early labor-market prospects affected economic and family outcomes during the following decades. Labor-market consequences were severe but not permanent. In contrast, family outcomes were permanently altered, in particular for low-GPA women. These women married and had children earlier, and they partnered with lower-performing spouses. Divorce and single-motherhood rates rose, and welfare-claims remained elevated for decades. This suggests that temporary shocks to female labor market prospects can propagate into long-run poverty through endogenous adjustments of marriage-quality thresholds.
Subjects / Keywords
Family formation; female labor supply; cost of recessions
JEL
E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
I26 - Returns to Education
J12 - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure; Domestic Abuse
J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
J22 - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
J31 - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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