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The Old-Age Security Motive for Fertility: Evidence from the Extension of Social Pensions in Namibia

Godard, Mathilde; Rossi, P. (2022), The Old-Age Security Motive for Fertility: Evidence from the Extension of Social Pensions in Namibia, American Economic Journal : Economic Policy

Type
Article accepté pour publication ou publié
External document link
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20200466
Date
2022
Journal name
American Economic Journal : Economic Policy
Publisher
American Economic Association
Metadata
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Author(s)
Godard, Mathilde
Rossi, P.
Abstract (EN)
The old-age security motive for fertility postulates that people's needs for old-age support raise the demand for children. We exploit the extension of social pensions in Namibia during the nineties to provide a quasi-experimental quantification of this widespread idea. The reform eliminated inequalities in pension coverage and benefits across regions and ethnic groups. Combining differences in pre-reform pensions and differences in exposure across cohorts, we show that pensions substantially reduce fertility, especially in late reproductive life. The results suggest that improving social protection for the elderly could go a long way in fostering fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Subjects / Keywords
Fertility; Old-age pensions; Social Security; Africa; Difference-in-Differences; D15, H55, I38, J13, O15, O55
JEL
D15
H55 - Social Security and Public Pensions
I38 - Government Policy; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
O15 - Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
O55 - Africa

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