Statistical analysis of the wind speed at the top of la Soufrière Volcano

Bernard, Didier; Tossa, Adaté; Emilion, Richard

Bernard, Didier; Tossa, Adaté; Emilion, Richard (2008), Statistical analysis of the wind speed at the top of la Soufrière Volcano. https://basepub.dauphine.fr/handle/123456789/3101

Type

Document de travail / Working paper

External document link

http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00165572/en/

Date

2008

Publisher

Université Paris-Dauphine

Published in

Paris

Metadata

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Author(s)

Bernard, Didier

Tossa, Adaté
Emilion, Richard

Abstract (EN)

We first analyze some atmospheric parameters measured in 2004 at the top of La Soufrière volcano: wind speed, pressure and temperature. Next, we study the stochastic process of the wind speed modulus which is of interest for prediction of pollution induced by the plume. We fit to the data various models : FARIMA, periodic trend plus multifractional Brownian noise, multifractal continuous cascades. The estimations show that they evoluate during some transition phases in response to environment changes. Thus, we finally suggest, for future works, some settings that should be more appropriate: time series with regime changes and stochastic processes in random environment.

Subjects / Keywords

La soufrière; multiplicative cascades; Atmospheric parameters