Forecasting volatility with the multifractal random walk model
Duchon, Jean; Robert, Raoul; Vargas, Vincent (2012), Forecasting volatility with the multifractal random walk model, Mathematical Finance, 22, 1, p. 83-108. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9965.2010.00458.x
TypeArticle accepté pour publication ou publié
External document linkhttp://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00220402/en/
Journal nameMathematical Finance
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Abstract (EN)We study the problem of forecasting volatility for the multifractal random walk model. In order to avoid the ill posed problem of estimating the correlation length T of the model, we introduce a limiting object defined in a quotient space; formally, this object is an infinite range logvolatility. For this object and the non limiting object, we obtain precise prediction formulas and we apply them to the problem of forecasting volatility and pricing options with the MRW model in the absence of a reliable estimate of the average volatility and T.
Subjects / KeywordsRandom measures; Gaussian processes; Prediction theory; Multifractal processes
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