Forecasting world and regional aviation Jet-Fuel demands to the mid term (2025)
Chevallier, Julien; Chèze, Benoît; Gastineau, Pascal (2011), Forecasting world and regional aviation Jet-Fuel demands to the mid term (2025), Energy Policy, 39, 9, p. 5147-5158. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.05.049
TypeArticle accepté pour publication ou publié
Journal nameEnergy Policy
MetadataShow full item record
Abstract (EN)This article provides jet fuel demand projections at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic forecasts are performed using dynamic panel-data econometrics. Then, the conversion of air traffic projections into quantities of jet fuel is accomplished by using a complementary approach to the ‘Traffic Efficiency’ method developed previously by the UK Department of Trade and Industry to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1999). According to our main scenario, air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 4.7%. World jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 1.9% per year. According to these results, energy efficiency improvements allow reducing the effect of air traffic rise on the increase in jet fuel demand, but do not annihilate it. Jet fuel demand is thus unlikely to diminish unless there is a radical technological shift, or air travel demand is restricted.
Subjects / KeywordsEnergy efficiency; Jet fuel demand forecasts; Macro-level methodology
Showing items related by title and author.
Forecasting world and regional air traﬃc in the mid-term (2025): An econometric analysis of air traﬃc determinants using dynamic panel-data models Chevallier, Julien; Chèze, Benoît; Gastineau, Pascal (2011) Communication / Conférence
Will technological progress be sufficient to effectively lead the air transport to a sustainable development in the mid-term (2025)? Chèze, Benoît; Chevallier, Julien; Gastineau, Pascal (2013-01) Article accepté pour publication ou publié
Air traffic energy efficiency differs from place to place : new results from a macro-level approach Chèze, Benoît; Gastineau, Pascal; Chevallier, Julien (2012-03) Document de travail / Working paper
The EU emissions trading scheme : The effects of industrial production and CO2 emissions on carbon prices Alberola, Emilie; Chevallier, Julien; Chèze, Benoît (2008) Article accepté pour publication ou publié
European carbon prices fundamentals in 2005-2007: the effects of energy markets, temperatures and sectorial production Chevallier, Julien; Alberola, Emilie; Chèze, Benoît (2007-10) Communication / Conférence