Forecasting world and regional air traﬃc in the mid-term (2025): An econometric analysis of air traﬃc determinants using dynamic panel-data models
Chevallier, Julien; Chèze, Benoît; Gastineau, Pascal (2011), Forecasting world and regional air traﬃc in the mid-term (2025): An econometric analysis of air traﬃc determinants using dynamic panel-data models, 60e Congrès AFSE, 2011-09, Paris (Nanterre), France
TypeCommunication / Conférence
Conference title60e Congrès AFSE
Conference cityParis (Nanterre)
MetadataShow full item record
Abstract (EN)This article proposes an econometric analysis of the demand for mobility in the aviation sector. The role played by diﬀerent variables (GDP, jet-fuel prices, exogenous shocks, market maturity) on air traﬃc is estimated using dynamic panel-data modeling. GDP appears to have a positive inﬂuence on air traﬃc, whereas Jet-Fuel prices have a non-linear eﬀect on air traﬃc. Our analysis shows that the magnitude of the inﬂuence of these air traﬃc determinants diﬀers widely among regions. Then, we use our model to predict the evolution of air traﬃc until 2025. According to our main scenario, air traﬃc should be multiplied by a factor of two between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 4.7% (ranging from 3% in North America to 8% in China, at the regional level) expressed in RTK.
Subjects / KeywordsAir Traffic Determinants; Dynamic Panel Data; Forecasting
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